Kristiansund BK 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Kristiansund BK take on Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Fredrikstad at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kristiansund BK at Kristiansund Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 0 for Fredrikstad and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 53% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 50% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.03 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.784 / defence 1.120 | Fredrikstad attack 0.734 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.322. Kristiansund BK's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Kristiansund BK games / 35 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 35% | Fredrikstad 34%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Fredrikstad 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 50% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 35% | Fredrikstad 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.03 / Fredrikstad 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.784 / def 1.120 | Fredrikstad attack 0.734 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 31% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
35%
2.88
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.12
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.09 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 7L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 7W 3D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.40 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad?
From 6 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 60%, Fredrikstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kristiansund BK) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 40%; Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Kristiansund BK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Kristiansund BK 0-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.03 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Fredrikstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 35% | Fredrikstad 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.