Valerenga 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ham-Kam travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valerenga haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Valerenga) versus 0.90 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Ham-Kam and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ham-Kam trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 62% versus Ham-Kam 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 56% | Ham-Kam 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.950 / defence 1.303 | Ham-Kam attack 0.647 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.379. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Valerenga games / 36 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Valerenga 1.84 / Ham-Kam 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.950 / def 1.303 | Ham-Kam attack 0.647 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Valerenga 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam part of?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 53% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Valerenga and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (0.95) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.24
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.00
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
26.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.16 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 8W 8D 16L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. Valerenga haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 14L across 32 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.00 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 2W 4D 10L from 16 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 4W 6D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.09 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Ham-Kam away?
Ham-Kam's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 0.62 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Ham-Kam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 62%, Ham-Kam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Valerenga) and 44% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Valerenga have failed to score in 31% of games; Ham-Kam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Valerenga's games and 56% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Valerenga's recent games and 44% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Valerenga and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Ham-Kam attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Ham-Kam 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.00 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.