🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Valerenga at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Ham-Kam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ham-Kam travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valerenga haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ham-Kam away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Valerenga) versus 0.90 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Ham-Kam and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Valerenga winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Valerenga trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Ham-Kam trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 62% versus Ham-Kam 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 56% | Ham-Kam 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.950 / defence 1.303 | Ham-Kam attack 0.647 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.379. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Valerenga games / 36 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights