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Poisson rates Brann at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Rosenborg encounter.

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Analysis

Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Brann — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 58% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Rosenborg 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.179 / defence 0.938 | Rosenborg attack 1.127 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.345. Rosenborg's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Brann games / 36 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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