Aalesund 1-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Haugesund travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aalesund — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aalesund 1.30 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Aalesund, 1 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aalesund in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 47% versus Haugesund 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 53% | Haugesund 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.709 / defence 0.939 | Haugesund attack 0.898 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.378. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Aalesund games / 47 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 35% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 36%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 50% | Haugesund 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 35% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Aalesund 1.15 / Haugesund 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.709 / def 0.939 | Haugesund attack 0.898 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Haugesund kick off?
Aalesund vs Haugesund kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Aalesund 1 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Aalesund vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Haugesund part of?
Aalesund vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 35% chance of winning, Haugesund a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Aalesund and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in?
Aalesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.47
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
Haugesund xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.16 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 5W 6D 6L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.24 PPG, Haugesund on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.59 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Haugesund away?
Aalesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Haugesund have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 50%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Aalesund) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aalesund's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Aalesund's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Aalesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Aalesund 1-2 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Haugesund attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 35% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 36%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 53%, Haugesund 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.24 PPG, Haugesund 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.