Sandefjord 0-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Lillestrom travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.00 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lillestrom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lillestrom have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Sandefjord.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Sandefjord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lillestrom trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 62% versus Lillestrom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.21 xG and Lillestrom 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.062 / defence 0.961 | Lillestrom attack 0.996 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: 32 Sandefjord games / 33 Lillestrom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 40%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Lillestrom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sandefjord 1.21 / Lillestrom 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.062 / def 0.961 | Lillestrom attack 0.996 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lillestrom xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 34% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.06) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.76
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.55
1.34
Lillestrom xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.34 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.60 PPG from 60 outings (29W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Lillestrom runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Lillestrom at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 63% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sandefjord and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.21 xG and Lillestrom 1.34 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Lillestrom attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 34% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 40%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.