Sandefjord 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Sandefjord.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Bodo/Glimt 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 67% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.69 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.381 / defence 0.841 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.491 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.351. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Sandefjord games / 49 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 40% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Sandefjord 1.69 / Bodo/Glimt 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.381 / def 0.841 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.491 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bodo/Glimt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (8 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 6W.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.38x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
38%
2.62
24%
4.24
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.38
1.69
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.69 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 8D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.10 PPG from 48 outings (30W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 15W 2D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.96 points per game from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 18W 8D 22L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 30W 11D 7L in their last 48 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Sandefjord's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 2.04 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 56%, Bodo/Glimt 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Sandefjord and 56% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sandefjord's games and 56% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sandefjord's matches and 56% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.69 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.69 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.38 / defence 0.84 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.49 / defence 0.74, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 38%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 67%, Bodo/Glimt 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.