Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stromsgodset face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Stromsgodset's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2025, ended 0–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 47% versus Bodo/Glimt 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 49% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 0.96 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.730 / defence 1.262 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.351 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.324. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Stromsgodset games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 14% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 66%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Bodo/Glimt 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 40% | Bodo/Glimt 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 14% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Stromsgodset 0.96 / Bodo/Glimt 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.730 / def 1.262 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.351 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stromsgodset 0 - 5 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 14% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (9 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 6W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.73x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
14%
7.14
20%
5.01
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.22
2.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
7.14
14%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
10%
9.57
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
1%
68.33
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 2.26 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 8D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.09 PPG from 47 outings (29W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 7W 4D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.91 points per game from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.40 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 13W 8D 26L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 29W 11D 7L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.14 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Bodo/Glimt 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stromsgodset) and 54% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 36%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 59% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 54% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 0-5 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.96 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.26 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.35 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 14% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 66%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 49%, Bodo/Glimt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.