🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Haugesund encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Fredrikstad host Haugesund at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Fredrikstad — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Fredrikstad are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fredrikstad have won 1, Haugesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Haugesund in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Haugesund 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 38% | Haugesund 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.24 xG and Haugesund 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.000 / defence 0.900 | Haugesund attack 0.608 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.351. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 49 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 71% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 10%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Haugesund 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights