Ham-Kam 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 45% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 43% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.832 / defence 1.044 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.946 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.351. Data: 49 Ham-Kam games / 49 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Ham-Kam 1.45 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.832 / def 1.044 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.946 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Ham-Kam 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (7 meetings): Ham-Kam 3W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.95x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.79
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.79
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 13W 15D 21L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 20L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.20 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 9W 8D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.45 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.17 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 46%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ham-Kam) and 71% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Ham-Kam's games and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 1-3 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.