Rosenborg 0-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Rosenborg's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rosenborg at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Rosenborg, 1.80 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rosenborg, 2 for Molde and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Rosenborg 2–1 Molde — a Rosenborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Molde — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Molde 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 65% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.70 xG and Molde 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.954 / defence 0.807 | Molde attack 0.887 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.354. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 33 games and Molde's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.84 | Draw 4.16 | Molde 4.66. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 60% (last 10 home games) | Molde 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rosenborg 33 games, Molde 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rosenborg 1.70 / Molde 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.954 / def 0.807 | Molde attack 0.887 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Molde xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 0 - 0 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 54% chance of winning, Molde a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.95x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (0.89x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 33 games and Molde's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.16
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.67
0.97
Molde xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.97 for Molde, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 27W 11D 22L from 60 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 17L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.72 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 17W 5D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Molde (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.87 PPG; Molde away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rosenborg and Molde, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 4-1 Rosenborg on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 63% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Molde Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Molde matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 57% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Molde matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 63% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 77% of Molde's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Rosenborg and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.70 xG and Molde 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Molde attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.53 PPG, Molde 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.