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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 0.90 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ham-Kam, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Sandefjord.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Ham-Kam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 62% | Ham-Kam 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.03 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.139 / defence 0.859 | Ham-Kam attack 0.848 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Data: 33 Sandefjord games / 33 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sandefjord 62% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 17%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Ham-Kam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.

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