Haugesund 0-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Fredrikstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Fredrikstad at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fredrikstad — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fredrikstad's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 1, Fredrikstad 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Haugesund winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fredrikstad trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 43% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.775 / defence 1.344 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 34 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Fredrikstad 2.22. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 20% | Fredrikstad 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Haugesund 1.20 / Fredrikstad 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.775 / def 1.344 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Haugesund 0 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad part of?
Haugesund vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Fredrikstad?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Fredrikstad in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
30%
3.37
25%
3.97
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.74
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.68
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.54 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 7D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 7W 1D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.47 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Fredrikstad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Haugesund's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Fredrikstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haugesund 27% BTTS, Fredrikstad 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Haugesund) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%; Haugesund have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Haugesund's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Haugesund's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Haugesund and Fredrikstad drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.78 / defence 1.34 against Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 43%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.