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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Fredrikstad encounter.

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Match Analysis

Haugesund host Fredrikstad at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Fredrikstad — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Fredrikstad's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 1, Fredrikstad 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Haugesund winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Fredrikstad trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 43% | Fredrikstad 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.775 / defence 1.344 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.329. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 34 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Fredrikstad 2.22. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 20% | Fredrikstad 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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