Molde 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Molde 1.80 PPG, Haugesund 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Molde hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for Haugesund, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 70% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.24 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.025 / defence 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.763 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.397. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Molde's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Molde games / 35 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Molde (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Molde 2.24 / Haugesund 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.025 / def 1.102 | Haugesund attack 0.763 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Molde (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Haugesund xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 60% chance of winning, Haugesund a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Molde 8W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.02x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.61
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Molde xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
Haugesund xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
2%
52.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Molde and 1.18 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Molde have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 30W 13D 17L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 18W 13D 29L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 10D 15L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.90 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Molde and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Molde's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.24 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Haugesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 60% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.