Stabaek 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2020 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Stabaek against 1.60 for Molde. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stabaek lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2020, ended 1–4 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Molde 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 50% | Molde 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.39 xG and Molde 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.851 / defence 0.962 | Molde attack 1.169 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.334. Data: 24 Stabaek games / 24 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 35% | Draw 26% | Molde 40%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 40% | Molde 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 35% | Draw 26% | Molde 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Stabaek 1.39 / Molde 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.851 / def 0.962 | Molde attack 1.169 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Molde (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Molde xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 35% chance of winning, Molde a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Molde in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.85) and Molde's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.17x) against Stabaek's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.87
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.89
1.50
Molde xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.50 for Molde, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 10D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.96 PPG from 24 outings (15W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.46 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 7W 10D 7L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Molde have gone 15W 2D 7L in their last 24 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Stabaek's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.58 PPG; Molde away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 33%, Molde 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Stabaek and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Stabaek's games and 83% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Stabaek's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Molde in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.39 xG and Molde 1.50 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Molde attack 1.17 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 35% | Draw 26% | Molde 40%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Molde 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.