Kristiansund BK 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kristiansund BK 0.60 PPG, Viking 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Viking have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Kristiansund BK's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 51% and Viking 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 55% | Viking 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.74 xG and Viking 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.898 / defence 1.388 | Viking attack 1.173 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.331. Data: 49 Kristiansund BK games / 49 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 21% | Viking 48%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.23 | Draw 4.76 | Viking 2.08. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 21% | Viking 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.74 / Viking 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.898 / def 1.388 | Viking attack 1.173 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Viking (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Viking xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 31% chance of winning, Viking a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Record (4 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Viking 4W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Viking (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.90x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
31%
3.19
21%
4.87
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.90
2.17
Viking xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
11%
8.73
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
4%
27.84
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 2.17 for Viking, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 8D 26L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.76 PPG from 49 outings (25W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.65 points per game from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.90 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 73%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 15W 8D 26L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.52 PPG; Viking away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 61%, Viking at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kristiansund BK) and 65% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Kristiansund BK's games and 70% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 65% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Viking in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Viking 2-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.74 xG and Viking 2.17 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Viking landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.90 / defence 1.39 against Viking attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 21% | Viking 48%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 55%, Viking 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.