Lillestrom 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lillestrom at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lillestrom, 2 for Brann and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Lillestrom 0–2 Brann — a Brann win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 60% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 63% | Brann 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lillestrom surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Brann have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.14 xG and Brann 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.977 / defence 1.355 | Brann attack 0.970 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.382. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.355 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brann's projected output up. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 36 games and Brann's last 37.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 4.20 | Draw 4.34 | Brann 1.88. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 50% (last 10 home games) | Brann 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Lillestrom 1.14 / Brann 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.977 / def 1.355 | Brann attack 0.970 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Brann (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Brann xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Brann FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Lillestrom 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 24% chance of winning, Brann a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.97x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 36 games and Brann's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
24%
4.20
23%
4.34
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.96
1.81
Brann xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
25.77
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.81 for Brann, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 13W 4D 13L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 19W 4D 7L from 30 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lillestrom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 15 home games (9W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 7W 2D 6L from their last 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
Lillestrom (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Lillestrom vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.87 PPG; Brann away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Brann in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lillestrom and Brann, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lillestrom have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 2, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Lillestrom 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 67%, Brann 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Lillestrom and 47% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Brann matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 47% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lillestrom and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Lillestrom's matches and 47% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 93% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Lillestrom 0-2 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.14 xG and Brann 1.81 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.98 / defence 1.35 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 24% | Draw 23% | Brann 53%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 63%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.