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Poisson rates Brann at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Ham-Kam encounter.

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Analysis

Ham-Kam make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ham-Kam away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Ham-Kam managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Brann a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Brann half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 61% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | Ham-Kam 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.071 / defence 0.942 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. Data: 59 Brann games / 59 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.00. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Ham-Kam 40% BTTS from recent games.

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