Sandefjord 2-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host KFUM Oslo at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KFUM Oslo — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with KFUM Oslo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 61% and KFUM Oslo 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | KFUM Oslo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.26 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.899 / defence 0.787 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.868 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. KFUM Oslo's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Sandefjord games / 59 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 27%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | KFUM Oslo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | KFUM Oslo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sandefjord 1.26 / KFUM Oslo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.899 / def 0.787 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.868 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.93
KFUM Oslo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord 2 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.49
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.20
0.93
KFUM Oslo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.93 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 10D 26L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.22 PPG from 59 outings (17W 21D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.34 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 17W 3D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.31 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 23W 10D 26L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 21L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.86 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sandefjord's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Sandefjord 0-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 48%, KFUM Oslo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sandefjord) and 41% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 52% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Sandefjord's recent games and 41% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat KFUM Oslo 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.26 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KFUM Oslo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.90 / defence 0.79 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 27%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, KFUM Oslo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.34 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.