ODD Ballklubb 2-1 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 21 as ODD Ballklubb welcome jerv to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, jerv stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
On current form, ODD Ballklubb have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, jerv 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
jerv trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 48% versus jerv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 57% | jerv 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.36 xG and jerv 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.894 / defence 1.118 | jerv attack 0.658 / defence 1.555. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.334. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.555 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 ODD Ballklubb games / 20 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 68% | Draw 18% | jerv 14%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | jerv 7.14. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | jerv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 68% | Draw 18% | jerv 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.36 / jerv 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.894 / def 1.118 | jerv attack 0.658 / def 1.555 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.98
jerv xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs jerv kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs jerv?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 1 jerv.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs jerv part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs jerv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 68% chance of winning, jerv a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | jerv 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and jerv in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. jerv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.89x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, jerv's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.58
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.34
0.98
jerv xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
9%
10.58
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
1%
75.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.98 for jerv, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 3D 10L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.71 PPG from 21 outings (4W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 4W 0D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.20 points per game from 10 outings (0W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.86 scored and 2.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and jerv in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 3D 10L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while jerv have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or jerv away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.20 PPG; jerv away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and jerv runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, jerv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when ODD Ballklubb 2-1 jerv.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and jerv?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 60%, jerv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for ODD Ballklubb and 80% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 50% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 80% of jerv's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and jerv tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, jerv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out jerv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat jerv 2-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.36 xG and jerv 0.98 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against jerv attack 0.66 / defence 1.55, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 68% | Draw 18% | jerv 14%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 57%, jerv 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. jerv (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.