Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Ham-Kam's games and 80% of Viking's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Viking have the stronger record — 5 wins to Ham-Kam's 1, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Ham-Kam 0–3 Viking — a Viking win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Viking have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Viking 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Viking 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Viking 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / defence 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.945 / away 1.371. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 30 games and Viking's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.13 | Draw 4.45 | Viking 3.27. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ham-Kam 30 games, Viking 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Ham-Kam 1.86 / Viking 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / def 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.945 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 1) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 47% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.11x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 30 games and Viking's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.45
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.33
1.47
Viking xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
5%
21.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.47 for Viking, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 18W 16D 26L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 38W 14D 8L from 60 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Viking have gone 16W 8D 6L from their last 30 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 PPG; Viking away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 7-3 Ham-Kam on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Viking 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ham-Kam and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ham-Kam and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 80% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Viking 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Viking 1.47 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.