Ham-Kam 2-5 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 51%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Ham-Kam 3–3 Viking — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 42% versus Viking 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Viking 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.75 xG and Viking 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.958 / defence 0.960 | Viking attack 1.024 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 32 games and Viking's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 24% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.95 | Draw 4.25 | Viking 3.95. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 20% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ham-Kam 32 games, Viking 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 24% | Viking 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Ham-Kam 1.75 / Viking 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.958 / def 0.960 | Viking attack 1.024 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Viking xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 2 - 5 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 51% chance of winning, Viking a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.02x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 32 games and Viking's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.25
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.92
1.17
Viking xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
22.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.17 for Viking, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 13D 29L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 34W 13D 13L from 60 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Viking have gone 14W 7D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.23 PPG; Viking away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 7-3 Ham-Kam on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 30%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Viking matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 57% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ham-Kam and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 60% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 73% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Ham-Kam 2-5 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.75 xG and Viking 1.17 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.17 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 24% | Viking 25%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Viking 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.