Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Ham-Kam.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ham-Kam away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.90 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Ham-Kam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 65% | Ham-Kam 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.96 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.257 / defence 1.026 | Ham-Kam attack 1.003 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.165. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Bodo/Glimt games / 31 Ham-Kam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 55% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 23%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Ham-Kam 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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