Bryne 3-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bryne at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bryne vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Bryne Stadion to face Bryne in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 1.12 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 0.706 / defence 1.101 | Haugesund attack 0.837 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Bryne's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Bryne games / 32 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bryne at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bryne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Bryne 1.12 / Haugesund 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 0.706 / def 1.101 | Haugesund attack 0.837 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Bryne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Haugesund xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bryne vs Haugesund kick off?
Bryne vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Haugesund?
Bryne 3 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Bryne vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Haugesund part of?
Bryne vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 36% chance of winning, Haugesund a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bryne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bryne and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bryne vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bryne and Haugesund in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Haugesund away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bryne's attack rating (0.71) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.84x) against Bryne's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bryne Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.44
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bryne xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
Haugesund xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bryne and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bryne and 1.09 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bryne
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Haugesund?
From 2 meetings on record, Bryne have won 2, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Haugesund?
Bryne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bryne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bryne beat Haugesund 3-1 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.12 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bryne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Haugesund attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.