Haugesund 4-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 June 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Viking — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 1, Viking 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–5 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 63% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.52 xG and Viking 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.969 / defence 1.206 | Viking attack 1.107 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.474. Data: 41 Haugesund games / 42 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 22% | Viking 48%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 2.08. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 22% | Viking 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Haugesund 1.52 / Viking 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.969 / def 1.206 | Viking attack 1.107 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Viking (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Viking xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Haugesund 4 - 2 Viking.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Viking a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.97x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
30%
3.36
22%
4.50
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.49
1.97
Viking xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
4%
24.05
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.97 for Viking, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 14D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.68 PPG from 60 outings (29W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Haugesund's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.60 PPG; Viking away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Haugesund and Viking tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Viking 4-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.52 xG and Viking 1.97 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Viking attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 22% | Viking 48%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Viking 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.