Stromsgodset 0-5 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Stromsgodset, 1.10 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stromsgodset 1W, Sandefjord 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 58% versus Sandefjord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.87 xG and Sandefjord 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.996 / defence 1.129 | Sandefjord attack 0.988 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.195. Data: 33 Stromsgodset games / 33 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 27%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sandefjord 3.70. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Stromsgodset 1.87 / Sandefjord 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.996 / def 1.129 | Sandefjord attack 0.988 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sandefjord xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 0 - 5 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 50% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.99x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.43
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.20
1.33
Sandefjord xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
4%
23.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.33 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 16W 19D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.18 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (10W 2D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.15 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.43 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Sandefjord 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 57% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 0-5 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.87 xG and Sandefjord 1.33 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandefjord outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Sandefjord attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 27%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.12 PPG, Sandefjord 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.