Fredrikstad 0-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fredrikstad and Lillestrom meet at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fredrikstad 2W, Lillestrom 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 82% versus Lillestrom 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 73% | Lillestrom 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Lillestrom 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.952 / defence 1.014 | Lillestrom attack 0.779 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.162. Data: 41 Fredrikstad games / 11 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 48% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 24%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Lillestrom 4.17. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 90% | Lillestrom 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 48% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Fredrikstad 1.42 / Lillestrom 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.952 / def 1.014 | Lillestrom attack 0.779 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lillestrom xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Fredrikstad 0 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom part of?
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 48% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fredrikstad and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Lillestrom in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.78x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.55
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.33
0.92
Lillestrom xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.92 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 6W 1D 4L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fredrikstad.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Fredrikstad are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fredrikstad have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lillestrom in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Lillestrom away?
Fredrikstad's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 2.00 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 0-3 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
1
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Lillestrom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lillestrom 1-4 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 100%, Lillestrom 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Fredrikstad) and 0% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 60%; Lillestrom in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 0% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 0% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Fredrikstad 0-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Lillestrom 0.92 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Lillestrom attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 48% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 24%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 73%, Lillestrom 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.