Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 13 as Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 0.90 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 4, Kristiansund BK 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 1–4 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 45% versus Kristiansund BK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 45% | Kristiansund BK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.77 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.009 / defence 1.075 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.819 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.186. Data: 41 Rosenborg games / 40 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 54% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Rosenborg 1.77 / Kristiansund BK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.009 / def 1.075 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.819 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kristiansund BK xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 54% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Record (9 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 3 | Kristiansund BK 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.08
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.04
Kristiansund BK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
4%
26.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.04 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 12W 12D 16L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 19L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.20 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 8W 8D 4L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.12 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.60 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Kristiansund BK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rosenborg) and 50% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rosenborg's recent games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Kristiansund BK 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.77 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 54% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 45%, Kristiansund BK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.20 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.