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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KFUM Oslo face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

KFUM Oslo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Bodo/Glimt have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to KFUM Oslo's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Injuries & Availability

KFUM Oslo are without 4 players for this fixture: Aleesami, Berglie, Eikrem, Njie. Bodo/Glimt have 5 absences to contend with: Berg, Bjorkan, Hauge, Mikkelsen, Riisnaes.

Stats

Across 11 matches this season, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 3D 5L. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.27 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Bodo/Glimt show 7W 2D 2L from 11 outings in Eliteserien. Attacking returns: 2.5 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 11 games (55%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-3-2. Discipline: 0.6 yellow cards per game.

Bodo/Glimt have been the more prolific side this season at 2.50 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Bodo/Glimt have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.00 per game versus 1.50 for the hosts. Bodo/Glimt lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 4). KFUM Oslo are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Bodo/Glimt score 2+ goals far more often (55% vs 0%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Bodo/Glimt have been awarded 4 penalties this season (3 scored).

Trading

KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 51% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.23 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.763 / defence 0.854 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.177. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 KFUM Oslo games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 34% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 50% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.

KFUM Oslo head in with 4 confirmed absences, which could disrupt squad depth. — factor the squad news into your confidence level before committing.

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