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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Fredrikstad.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 July 2026 at 17:15 UTC.

Current Odds

The market has installed Bodo/Glimt as the clear favourite — Bodo/Glimt 1.15 (implied 81%), Draw 7.73 (12%), Fredrikstad 13.62 (implied 7%).

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fredrikstad's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Fredrikstad managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 5–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Stats

Across 12 matches this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 2D 2L. Their scoring output is 2.5 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 12 games (50%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-3-2. Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards per game.

Fredrikstad have played 12 games this season, recording 4W 2D 6L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 12 games (17%). Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Bodo/Glimt have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.50 per game versus 1.30 for the visitors. Bodo/Glimt have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.90 per game against Fredrikstad's 1.80. Fredrikstad are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Bodo/Glimt score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 17%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Bodo/Glimt have been awarded 4 penalties this season (3 scored).

League Table

Bodo/Glimt hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 26 points — 7 positions and 12 points clear of Fredrikstad in 10th.

On home turf, Bodo/Glimt's Eliteserien record reads 4W 0D 1L this term. Fredrikstad have gone 1W 1D 4L on their travels. Bodo/Glimt: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 50% versus Fredrikstad 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 71% | Fredrikstad 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.87 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.414 / defence 0.745 | Fredrikstad attack 0.940 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.164. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Fredrikstad 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.15 (fair-implied 81% vs Poisson 79%).

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting. The market (1.28, fair-implied 73%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 30% | Fredrikstad 40% from recent games — a notable divergence. Market pricing (1.81, fair-implied 51%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.

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