Brann 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ham-Kam away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Brann's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ham-Kam's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Brann's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) — Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Brann edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Brann 2–0 Ham-Kam — a Brann win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Ham-Kam 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Ham-Kam 60%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.26 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.993 / defence 1.057 | Ham-Kam attack 0.778 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.404. Ham-Kam's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Brann's last 33 games and Ham-Kam's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 34%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.58 | Draw 3.64 | Ham-Kam 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Brann 33 games, Ham-Kam 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 16 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Brann 1.26 / Ham-Kam 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.993 / def 1.057 | Ham-Kam attack 0.778 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Brann (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Brann vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Brann vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Brann vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Ham-Kam part of?
Brann vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 16) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 39% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Brann and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Brann vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.78x) against Brann's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 33 games and Ham-Kam's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.64
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Brann xG
Total xG
2.42
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Brann and 1.16 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 4D 7L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (10W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 12W 2D 1L across their last 15 home games, a 2.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.30 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Brann (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Brann vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Ham-Kam away?
Brann's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.53 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Brann or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Brann have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won Ham-Kam 1-5 Brann on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Brann
1
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Brann and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Ham-Kam?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Ham-Kam 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Brann and 67% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brann's games and 53% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Brann's matches and 67% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Brann and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Brann's recent matches and 80% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.26 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Ham-Kam attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 34%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Ham-Kam 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.