Rosenborg 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ham-Kam away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Rosenborg, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Rosenborg 0–3 Ham-Kam — a Ham-Kam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 67% and Ham-Kam 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 73% | Ham-Kam 57%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Rosenborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.52 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.093 / defence 0.866 | Ham-Kam attack 0.918 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.347. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 32 games and Ham-Kam's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.10 | Draw 3.90 | Ham-Kam 3.74. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rosenborg 32 games, Ham-Kam 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rosenborg 1.52 / Ham-Kam 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.093 / def 0.866 | Ham-Kam attack 0.918 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.92x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 32 games and Ham-Kam's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.07 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 14D 19L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 16W 17D 27L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 30 home games (19W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 8D 16L from their last 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Rosenborg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Ham-Kam 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Ham-Kam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 63% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 63% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 77% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.52 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Ham-Kam attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Ham-Kam 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.