Tromso 0-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Kristiansund BK travel to Romssa Arena to take on Tromso. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Romssa Arena, Tromso have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tromso 1.40 PPG, Kristiansund BK 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Tromso have won 1, Kristiansund BK 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Tromso in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 41% versus Kristiansund BK 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 59% | Kristiansund BK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.69 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.017 / defence 1.111 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.713 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.385. Data: 46 Tromso games / 15 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 51% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 24%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 4.17. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tromso 50% | Kristiansund BK 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 51% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Tromso 1.69 / Kristiansund BK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.017 / def 1.111 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.713 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Tromso (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Kristiansund BK xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Tromso vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Kristiansund BK?
Tromso 0 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Tromso vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Tromso vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 51% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tromso and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 3 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Tromso and Kristiansund BK in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.02x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.99
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.79
1.10
Kristiansund BK xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Tromso and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Tromso and 1.10 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 3D 9L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.06 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (3W 0D 6L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.35 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Tromso's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Tromso have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Tromso's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tromso
4
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Kristiansund BK?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Kristiansund BK?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 44%, Kristiansund BK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Tromso and 44% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 33% of games; Kristiansund BK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Tromso's recent matches and 56% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Tromso's matches and 44% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Tromso and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Tromso and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.69 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 51% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 24%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 59%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.06 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.