Viking 1-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Viking's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Molde in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Viking, 3 for Molde and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Molde — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Molde 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 58% | Molde 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.26 xG and Molde 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.218 / defence 0.967 | Molde attack 1.123 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.379. Molde's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Viking games / 46 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Molde lead the H2H ledger, but Viking carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Viking 1.26 / Molde 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.218 / def 0.967 | Molde attack 1.123 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Molde (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Molde xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Molde kick off?
Viking vs Molde kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Molde?
Viking 1 - 0 Molde.
Where is Viking vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Molde part of?
Viking vs Molde is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 31% chance of winning, Molde a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Viking and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Molde?
Record (6 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 2 | Molde 3W.
What form are Viking and Molde in?
Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Molde (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.22) and Molde's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.12x) against Viking's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.69
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Viking xG
Total xG
2.75
1.50
Molde xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Viking and 1.50 for Molde, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Viking have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 26W 8D 11L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 23W 10D 12L from 45 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for Viking against 1.76 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Molde have gone 10W 5D 6L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.16 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Molde in 60%.
Defensively: Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Molde in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 8D 11L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Molde have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Molde away?
Viking's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.05 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Viking or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Molde have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Viking 4-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Molde?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Viking, 62% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Viking and 67% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Viking's games and 62% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Viking's matches and 67% of Molde's.
Do Viking and Molde tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Molde in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Molde 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Molde 1-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.26 xG and Molde 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Molde landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Molde attack 1.12 / defence 0.72, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 58%, Molde 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.91 PPG, Molde 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.