Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 0L across 8 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Valerenga and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 78%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 78% and Valerenga 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 100% | Valerenga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.06 xG and Valerenga 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.843 / defence 0.948 | Valerenga attack 0.714 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.425. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.843 — their λ of 3.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Bodo/Glimt games / 18 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Valerenga 9%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Valerenga 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (79%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Valerenga 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Valerenga 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 59% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.06 / Valerenga 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.843 / def 0.948 | Valerenga attack 0.714 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.06
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Valerenga xG
59%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 79% chance of winning, Valerenga a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.84x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.06. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
79%
1.27
13%
7.98
9%
11.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.06
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.02
0.96
Valerenga xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.98
13%
Draw
11.64
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
5%
21.22
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 3.06 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.96 for Valerenga, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 16W 2D 0L from 18 games, a 2.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 4L across 18 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 8W 0D 0L from 8 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.61 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Valerenga in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 16W 2D 0L in their last 18 games (2.78 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bodo/Glimt at 75%, Valerenga at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bodo/Glimt and 62% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 75% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 62% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.06 xG and Valerenga 0.96 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.84 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Valerenga 9%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, Valerenga 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.78 PPG against 1.78. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 4.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.