Stromsgodset 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 47%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 3L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 1D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 61% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 61% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.973 / defence 1.493 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.658 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.428. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Stromsgodset games / 18 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.33. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 67% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Stromsgodset 1.79 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.973 / def 1.493 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.658 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 26 September 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stromsgodset 0 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 47% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.97) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.35
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.19
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
5%
19.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 6D 7L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 7W 2D 9L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sarpsborg 08 FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.12 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 75%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Stromsgodset and 62% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Stromsgodset's games and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Stromsgodset's matches and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.79 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 1.49 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 61%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.