Mjondalen 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Viking at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 0D 6L at Consto Arena — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Mjondalen's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 0 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Viking in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 39% versus Viking 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 39% | Viking 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.06 xG and Viking 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.567 / defence 1.206 | Viking attack 0.943 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.414. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.567 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Mjondalen games / 18 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 25% | Draw 25% | Viking 50%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Viking 2.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mjondalen 25% | Viking 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 25% | Draw 25% | Viking 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjondalen 1.06 / Viking 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.567 / def 1.206 | Viking attack 0.943 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Viking (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Viking xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Viking kick off?
Mjondalen vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Viking?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Mjondalen vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Viking part of?
Mjondalen vs Viking is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 25% chance of winning, Viking a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjondalen and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.57) and Viking's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
25%
4.00
25%
4.02
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.67
1.61
Viking xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.95
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.61 for Viking, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 4W 2D 12L from 18 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 2W 0D 6L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.89 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 12L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Viking have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.75 PPG; Viking away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 25%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Mjondalen) and 62% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 50% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mjondalen's recent games and 62% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Viking tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Viking in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.06 xG and Viking 1.61 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.57 / defence 1.21 against Viking attack 0.94 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 25% | Draw 25% | Viking 50%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 39%, Viking 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.