Valerenga 4-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and Mjondalen meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 6W 3D 0L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 1.00 PPG lead over Mjondalen (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Mjondalen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2020, ended 1–0 with Valerenga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 68% versus Mjondalen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 63% | Mjondalen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.40 xG and Mjondalen 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.211 / defence 0.959 | Mjondalen attack 0.612 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.403. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Valerenga games / 19 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 72% | Draw 17% | Mjondalen 11%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Mjondalen 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 78% | Mjondalen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 72% | Draw 17% | Mjondalen 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 51% | xG Valerenga 2.40 / Mjondalen 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.211 / def 0.959 | Mjondalen attack 0.612 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Mjondalen xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Mjondalen kick off?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Valerenga 4 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Valerenga vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Mjondalen part of?
Valerenga vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 72% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valerenga and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.61x) against Valerenga's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.99
11%
9.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.22
0.82
Mjondalen xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
9.10
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
9%
11.03
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
100.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.82 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 9W 5D 5L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 4W 2D 13L from 19 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (6W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.74 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 13L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Mjondalen away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valerenga
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Mjondalen?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Valerenga, 56% for Mjondalen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Valerenga and 56% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Valerenga's games and 56% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Valerenga's matches and 56% of Mjondalen's.
Do Valerenga and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Mjondalen 4-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.40 xG and Mjondalen 0.82 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Mjondalen attack 0.61 / defence 1.40, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 72% | Draw 17% | Mjondalen 11%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 63%, Mjondalen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.