Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Lillestrom — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 50% versus Lillestrom 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.98 xG and Lillestrom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.045 / defence 0.787 | Lillestrom attack 1.192 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Lillestrom's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 56 games and Lillestrom's last 26.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.85 | Draw 3.83 | Lillestrom 5.06. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.98 / Lillestrom 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.045 / def 0.787 | Lillestrom attack 1.192 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lillestrom xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 54% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.04) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.19x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 56 games and Lillestrom's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.83
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.13
1.16
Lillestrom xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
3%
36.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.16 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 16W 7D 3L from 26 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 8L across 26 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 9W 3D 1L from their last 13 home games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across their last 13 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 65%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 16W 7D 3L in their last 26 games (2.12 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.31 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 7 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Lillestrom 0-5 Bodo/Glimt on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 46% for Bodo/Glimt, 85% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Bodo/Glimt and 77% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 85% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 77% of Lillestrom's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 77% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Lillestrom 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.98 xG and Lillestrom 1.16 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against Lillestrom attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 50%, Lillestrom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lillestrom's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.