Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Sandefjord to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 0.90 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Sandefjord and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–4 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and Sandefjord 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% | Sandefjord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.961 / defence 1.246 | Sandefjord attack 0.968 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.371. Data: 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 46 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 39%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 / Sandefjord 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.961 / def 1.246 | Sandefjord attack 0.968 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sandefjord xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 37% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.17
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.24
1.65
Sandefjord xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.65 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 8D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.02 PPG from 46 outings (12W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.28 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 10W 3D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.52 points per game from 23 outings (2W 6D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.54 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 8D 21L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Sandefjord away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.43 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 74%, Sandefjord at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 61% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 65% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 61% of Sandefjord's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 xG and Sandefjord 1.65 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Sandefjord attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 39%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%, Sandefjord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 PPG, Sandefjord 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.