Sandefjord 1-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet in-form Ham-Kam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Release Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ham-Kam's 1.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sandefjord, 1 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 67% and Ham-Kam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 85% | Ham-Kam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Ham-Kam 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.847 / defence 1.393 | Ham-Kam attack 0.679 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.378. Data: 57 Sandefjord games / 27 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 32%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Ham-Kam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ham-Kam (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | Ham-Kam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sandefjord 1.57 / Ham-Kam 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.847 / def 1.393 | Ham-Kam attack 0.679 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sandefjord and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.06
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Ham-Kam xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.30 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 5D 16L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 5W 13D 9L from 27 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 0.85 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 0.62 PPG from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 7D 5L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 5W 13D 9L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Ham-Kam away?
Ham-Kam's away record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 0.62 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
6
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 92%, Ham-Kam at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Sandefjord and 54% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Sandefjord's games and 77% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Sandefjord's matches and 54% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sandefjord and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Ham-Kam 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Ham-Kam attack 0.68 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 32%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 85%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.85 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.