Waalwijk 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 0.70 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2022, ended Waalwijk 2–0 Heracles — a Waalwijk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Heracles 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 64% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.93 xG and Heracles 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.876 / defence 1.086 | Heracles attack 0.866 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.532. Heracles's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 50 games and Heracles's last 16.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.12 | Draw 3.88 | Heracles 3.71. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Waalwijk 1.93 / Heracles 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.876 / def 1.086 | Heracles attack 0.866 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Heracles xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Heracles FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 12 January 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance of winning, Heracles a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.88) and Heracles's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 50 games and Heracles's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.88
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.37
1.44
Heracles xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Heracles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.44 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 15W 10D 25L from 50 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 28W 6D 16L across 50 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 4D 10L from their last 25 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 11W 3D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.22 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heracles
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Heracles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Heracles Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Heracles have gone 28W 6D 16L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.48 PPG; Heracles away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won Heracles 0-5 Waalwijk.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Heracles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 64%, Heracles 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Waalwijk and 76% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Heracles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Heracles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Heracles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Waalwijk's matches and 76% of Heracles's.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 76% of Heracles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.93 xG and Heracles 1.44 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Heracles attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 47% | Draw 26% | Heracles 27%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, Heracles 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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