Heracles 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and FC Volendam meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 5W 1D 4L at Erve Asito — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Heracles against 0.70 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heracles, 0 for FC Volendam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 74% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.52 xG and FC Volendam 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.767 / defence 1.318 | FC Volendam attack 0.888 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.508. Heracles's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Heracles games / 51 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 42%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.52 / FC Volendam 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.767 / def 1.318 | FC Volendam attack 0.888 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.76
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs FC Volendam kick off?
Heracles vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Heracles 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Heracles vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs FC Volendam part of?
Heracles vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 32% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.77) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.89x) against Heracles's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
32%
3.09
25%
3.97
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.29
1.76
FC Volendam xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Heracles and 1.76 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 29W 6D 16L from 51 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 30L across 51 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 17W 3D 5L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 2W 5D 18L across 25 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.18 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 29W 6D 16L in their last 51 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 8D 30L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or FC Volendam away?
Heracles's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.16 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Heracles
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 52%, FC Volendam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Heracles and 72% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Volendam in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Heracles's games and 60% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Heracles's matches and 72% of FC Volendam's.
Do Heracles and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.52 xG and FC Volendam 1.76 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.77 / defence 1.32 against FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 32% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 42%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 74%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.