FC Volendam 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as FC Volendam welcome Almere City FC to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 0 for Almere City FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 72% | Almere City FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / defence 1.317 | Almere City FC attack 0.744 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.546. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 FC Volendam games / 16 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Almere City FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Volendam 1.74 / Almere City FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / def 1.317 | Almere City FC attack 0.744 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.546 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
FC Volendam 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Volendam and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.85) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.69
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.26
1.51
Almere City FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.51 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 13W 8D 29L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 15L across 50 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 11L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 8D 29L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 12D 15L in their last 50 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.46 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Volendam) and 42% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 46% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Volendam's matches and 42% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Volendam and Almere City FC tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Volendam 0-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.32 against Almere City FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.