PEC Zwolle 2-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, PEC Zwolle have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Heerenveen — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Heerenveen's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.10 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2022, ended PEC Zwolle 1–0 Heerenveen — a PEC Zwolle win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heerenveen trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 58% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 67% | Heerenveen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.37 xG and Heerenveen 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.721 / defence 1.197 | Heerenveen attack 0.905 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.542. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 16 games and Heerenveen's last 50.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 42%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.41 | Draw 3.55 | Heerenveen 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 17 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.37 / Heerenveen 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.721 / def 1.197 | Heerenveen attack 0.905 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.542 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Heerenveen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.72x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 16 games and Heerenveen's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.55
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.04
1.67
Heerenveen xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.67 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 52 games, going 30W 7D 15L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.25 PPG from 52 outings (18W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 16W 3D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.33 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 7D 15L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 18W 11D 23L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heerenveen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.96 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.19 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Heerenveen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 54%, Heerenveen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PEC Zwolle) and 54% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Heerenveen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 42% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 54% of Heerenveen's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 65% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.37 xG and Heerenveen 1.67 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Heerenveen attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 42%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 67%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Heerenveen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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