Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortuna Sittard make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Waalwijk, 0.90 for Fortuna Sittard — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waalwijk lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 58% versus Fortuna Sittard 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | Fortuna Sittard 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.103 / defence 1.011 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.998 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.315. Data: 57 Waalwijk games / 57 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Fortuna Sittard 4.00. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 40% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 2.02 / Fortuna Sittard 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.103 / def 1.011 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.998 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Fortuna Sittard xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 53% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (7 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Sittard 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.10) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (1.00x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.60
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.34
1.33
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
30.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 11W 13D 33L from 57 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 25L across 57 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 8D 13L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 33L in their last 57 games (0.81 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.04 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Sittard have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 57%, Fortuna Sittard 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Waalwijk) and 57% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 43% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Waalwijk's matches and 57% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.33 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.81 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.