Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortuna Sittard make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Sittard away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Waalwijk, 0.90 for Fortuna Sittard — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fortuna Sittard edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Waalwijk 2–3 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 58% versus Fortuna Sittard 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | Fortuna Sittard 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.103 / defence 1.011 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.998 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.315. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 57 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 57.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.88 | Draw 4.60 | Fortuna Sittard 4.01. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 40% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Waalwijk 2.02 / Fortuna Sittard 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.103 / def 1.011 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.998 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Fortuna Sittard xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 53% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.10) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (1.00x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 57 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.60
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.34
1.33
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
30.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 11W 13D 33L from 57 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 25L across 57 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 8D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 33L in their last 57 games (0.81 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.04 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Fortuna Sittard have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 2, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 57%, Fortuna Sittard 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Waalwijk) and 57% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 43% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Waalwijk's matches and 57% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 68% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.33 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.81 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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