Heracles 4-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Asito Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadion, Heracles have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 1.10 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PEC Zwolle have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 2 for Heracles.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PEC Zwolle have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 63% | PEC Zwolle 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.68 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.039 / defence 1.077 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.926 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.295. Data: 57 Heracles games / 57 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 29%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 3.45. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 80% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Heracles 1.68 / PEC Zwolle 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.039 / def 1.077 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.926 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Heracles (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.29
PEC Zwolle xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Heracles 4 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 46% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Heracles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (7 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 5W.
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.99
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.97
1.29
PEC Zwolle xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Heracles and 1.29 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 15D 28L from 57 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 26L across 57 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 8W 11D 9L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 5W 11D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heracles's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.25 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Heracles
0
Draws
6
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
From 10 meetings on record, Heracles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 64%, PEC Zwolle 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Heracles) and 54% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Heracles's games and 61% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heracles's matches and 54% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heracles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 4-2 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.68 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.29 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 29%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 63%, PEC Zwolle 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.