🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Heerenveen welcome AZ Alkmaar to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Heerenveen's home record at Abe Lenstra Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.

AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Heerenveen.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–9 with AZ Alkmaar winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Heerenveen trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

AZ Alkmaar trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 53% versus AZ Alkmaar 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 63% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.21 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.976 / defence 1.016 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.036 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.298. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Heerenveen games / 57 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Heerenveen 32% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 40%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heerenveen 50% | AZ Alkmaar 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights