Utrecht 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utrecht at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Utrecht against 1.10 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Utrecht, 0 for NAC Breda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 63% and NAC Breda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 52% | NAC Breda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.876 / defence 1.262 | NAC Breda attack 0.807 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.321. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Utrecht games / 23 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 27%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 3.70. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Utrecht 60% | NAC Breda 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Utrecht 1.93 / NAC Breda 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.876 / def 1.262 | NAC Breda attack 0.807 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.35
NAC Breda xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Utrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Utrecht 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Utrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Utrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 51% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Utrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Utrecht and NAC Breda in?
Utrecht (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 0.88x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.81x) against Utrecht's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.48
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.28
1.35
NAC Breda xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Utrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.35 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utrecht's recent record stands at 26W 18D 15L from 59 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 21L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Utrecht against 1.49 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 10W 5D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 25W 13D 21L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
Utrecht's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.75 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Utrecht
1
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, NAC Breda have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 61%, NAC Breda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Utrecht) and 64% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Utrecht's games and 57% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Utrecht's matches and 64% of NAC Breda's.
Do Utrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.35 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 27%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 52%, NAC Breda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.63 PPG, NAC Breda 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.