Heracles 0-6 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host PSV Eindhoven at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 1.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 59% versus PSV Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 75% | PSV Eindhoven 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.18 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.049 / defence 1.196 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.687 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.327. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.687 — the away xG of 2.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Heracles games / 44 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | PSV Eindhoven 1.49. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | PSV Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.18 / PSV Eindhoven 2.68 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.049 / def 1.196 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.687 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Heracles 0 - 6 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 13% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.05) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
13%
7.76
20%
5.07
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.86
2.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
7.76
13%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
7%
14.54
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
1%
112.90
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Heracles and 2.68 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 6D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.39 PPG from 44 outings (33W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 16W 3D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.05 points per game from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.82 scored and 1.02 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 27W 6D 11L in their last 44 games (1.98 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 33W 6D 5L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
Heracles's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.43 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Heracles or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, PSV Eindhoven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heracles and 76% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 62% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heracles's matches and 76% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Heracles and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 0-6 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.18 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.68 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.2 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.69 / defence 0.68, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 75%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.