Heracles 0-6 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host PSV Eindhoven at Erve Asito in Eredivisie (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Heracles's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heracles are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 1.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2022, ended Heracles 1–3 PSV Eindhoven — a PSV Eindhoven win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 59% versus PSV Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 75% | PSV Eindhoven 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.18 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.049 / defence 1.196 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.687 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.327. PSV Eindhoven bring a tight defence (rating 0.682, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Heracles's projected output down. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.687, which lifts their away xG to 2.68. Data: built from Heracles's last 10 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 44.
Result probabilities: Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 7.76 | Draw 5.07 | PSV Eindhoven 1.48. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.18 / 2.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heracles 70% (last 10 home games) | PSV Eindhoven 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Heracles 1.18 / PSV Eindhoven 2.68 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.049 / def 1.196 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.687 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Heracles 0 - 6 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 13% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and PSV Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.05) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Heracles's last 10 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
13%
7.76
20%
5.07
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.86
2.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
7.76
13%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
7%
14.54
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
1%
112.90
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Heracles and 2.68 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 44 games, going 27W 6D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.39 PPG from 44 outings (33W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 16W 3D 2L across their last 21 home games, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.05 points per game from their last 21 away games (13W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.82 scored and 1.02 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Heracles (Home) vs PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heracles
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 27W 6D 11L in their last 44 games (1.98 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 33W 6D 5L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
Heracles's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.43 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Heracles or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won the most recent 8 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Nov 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won Heracles 0-6 PSV Eindhoven.
Heracles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, PSV Eindhoven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heracles and 76% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heracles and PSV Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 62% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heracles's matches and 76% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Heracles and PSV Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Heracles's recent matches and 76% of PSV Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 0-6 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.18 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.68 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.2 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.69 / defence 0.68, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 13% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 67%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 75%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 11
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →