PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PSV Eindhoven face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:45 UK time.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PSV Eindhoven's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of NEC Nijmegen's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from PSV Eindhoven's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 90% of NEC Nijmegen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours PSV Eindhoven, who have won 7 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against NEC Nijmegen — NEC Nijmegen have 1 win, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended PSV Eindhoven 5–3 NEC Nijmegen — a PSV Eindhoven win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 4.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 97% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 70% and NEC Nijmegen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 85% | NEC Nijmegen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.44 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.478 / defence 0.972 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.310 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.386. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack rating of 1.478 — their 2.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack rating of 1.310, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Data: built from PSV Eindhoven's last 60 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 60.
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 52% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 27%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.91 | Draw 4.88 | NEC Nijmegen 3.67. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (2.44 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.20 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PSV Eindhoven's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PSV Eindhoven 80% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 52% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.44 / NEC Nijmegen 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.478 / def 0.972 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.310 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.76
NEC Nijmegen xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen?
PSV Eindhoven 2 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 52% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PSV Eindhoven's attack rating (1.48) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.31x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from PSV Eindhoven's last 60 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.88
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.20
1.76
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
9%
11.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.76 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 60 games, going 47W 6D 7L for 2.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.48 PPG from 60 outings (25W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 23W 5D 2L across their last 30 home games, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.93 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 47W 6D 7L in their last 60 games (2.45 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.47 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won PSV Eindhoven 4-0 NEC Nijmegen on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 97% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 67%, NEC Nijmegen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for PSV Eindhoven and 57% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 53% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 57% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 97% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 70% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat PSV Eindhoven 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PSV Eindhoven 2-3 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.44 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.48 / defence 0.97 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.31 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 52% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 27%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 85%, NEC Nijmegen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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